Two decades after the 9/11 attacks reshaped global security, al Qaeda is showing unmistakable signs of revival — and once again, Afghanistan is at the heart of its resurgence.
A recent warning for the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) underscores the seriousness of the threat: al Qaeda and its Yemen-based affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), are exploiting conflicts involving U.S. support to inspire new attacks on American soil. What was once dismissed as a weakened and fragmented network is re-emerging as a potential regional and global menace.
The seeds of this resurgence were sown in August 2021, when the Taliban returned to power in Kabul. Despite their assurances under the Doha Agreement that Afghan soil would not be used for terrorism, evidence suggests that the Taliban’s promises are more rhetorical than real. Al Qaeda operatives are believed to have re-established training bases, strengthened recruitment channels, and renewed ties with the Taliban’s leadership. These developments have turned Afghanistan back into a permissive environment — much like it was in the pre-9/11 era — where global jihadist networks can regroup and reorganize.
Al Qaeda’s strategy is evolving in ways that make it even harder to counter. No longer fixated solely on spectacular large-scale attacks, the group is increasingly focused on inspiring lone-wolf actors and decentralized cells through online propaganda. Its messaging now weaves together global grievances — from U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts to the plight of Muslims in Gaza — to broaden its appeal and attract new recruits. The NCTC’s advisory, which warned of potential threats to crowded public venues like sports events and concerts, is a stark reminder of how the group adapts its tactics to exploit vulnerabilities in open societies.
This geopolitical distraction provides terrorist groups the space and time to rebuild. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan created not only a physical vacuum but also an intelligence gap, limiting the ability of Western agencies to monitor and disrupt extremist networks in real time. This blind spot is precisely what al Qaeda needs to regenerate its capabilities and expand its reach.
For the international community, the implications are clear: complacency is dangerous. The notion that al Qaeda was a spent force has proven premature. Its ideology remains resilient, its networks adaptive, and its ambition undiminished. If left unchecked, the group could once again project terror far beyond Afghanistan’s borders, targeting Western cities, destabilizing fragile states, and fueling broader cycles of extremism and conflict.
From "Treath Sentinel Group
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