The year of elections: The rise of Europe’s far right

 

 

After strong showings in recent elections, there are far-right parties in government in seven European countries. Global Insight assesses the threat to the rule of law and what can be done to protect it.

Seven EU Member States – Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia – now have far-right parties within government. A political party viewed as potentially ‘extremist’ by German authorities has won a state election in Germany. And far-right parties gave strong showings in the summer’s European Parliament elections, prompting a snap national vote in France, which risked National Rally (RN) gaining power.

As the far-right gains support among voters, it’s fast becoming clear that established democracies are facing significant efforts to shrink civic space and erode legal, judicial and democratic checks and balances – with significant implications for the rule of law.

The rise of parties such as France’s RN and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) – given their regressive stance on climate action and immigration, and their overt opposition to sending further aid to Ukraine – has also sparked concern over how such nationalist and xenophobic ideas could gain traction within the political mainstream and affect policy at EU level.

‘There is a connection between the rule of law and the rise of these radical or right-wing ultra-conservative parties’, says Balázs Dénes, Executive Director of the Berlin-based Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties). ‘The steady increase [in popularity] of these parties will eventually have consequences on the rule of law and on human rights and on fundamental freedoms.’
European upsets

Concerns about the far-right in Europe have taken on particular significance in 2024. In September, the AfD won almost a third of the vote in the eastern German state of Thuringia, marking the first time a far-right party has won in a state parliament election in the country since the Second World War. That same day the AfD came a close second in an election in the neighbouring state of Saxony.
Image of Bjron.

These dramatic results came despite a ruling by a German court in May that domestic security services could continue to treat the AfD as a potentially ‘extremist’ party and retain the right to keep the party under surveillance. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution – the German domestic intelligence agency – classified the AfD as potentially extreme in 2021. In 2022, a court in Cologne found that the designation was proportionate and didn’t violate the constitution, or European or domestic civil law. The party denies it’s anti-democratic and has said it’ll appeal the ruling, though it can only do so on procedural issues at this point.

Meanwhile, the AfD’s leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has been fined twice in court for using Nazi slogans. He denies knowingly doing so.  T party’s success also represents one of the most prominent recent examples of how far-right parties are striking a chord with younger voters. More than a third of those aged 18–24 voted for the AfD in Thuringia and Saxony.

Hans-Georg Dederer, a constitutional law expert at the University of Passau, says a combination of strong social media and communication skills have helped the party appeal to disaffected younger voters. ‘What is extremely important is that the AfD is very active on social media, especially TikTok, doing by far a much better job than any other of the old democratic parties’, he says. ‘What is more, these old democratic parties now take up issues such as migration [and] internal security [that] have already been consistently addressed by the AfD as pressing issues to be dealt with rapidly – so, what is wrong with the AfD [voters] may ask?’

The party’s successes in eastern Germany echoed the earlier campaign by the AfD in the European Parliament elections in June, where the party’s targeted approach saw it more than triple its share of the youth vote.

Those European Parliament elections represented another political upset for the bloc in 2024, as voters headed to polls in the EU’s first major electoral test since Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Early forecasts indicated that nationalist right and far-right groups could pick up as many as a quarter of the seats. Although their share of the vote wasn’t quite so high, there were significant gains by far-right parties, which only confirmed fears about the direction of the EU Parliament.

Mapped: Europe’s rapidly rising right

Hard-right forces are gaining ground ahead of next month’s European Parliament election. cover. The longstanding effort to keep extremist forces out of government in Europe is officially over.

For decades, political parties of all kinds joined forces to keep the hard-right far from the levers of power. Today, this strategy — known in France as a cordon sanitaire (or firewall) — is falling apart, as populist and nationalist parties grow in strength across the Continent.

Six EU countries — Italy, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and the Czech Republic — have hard-right parties in government. In Sweden, the survival of the executive relies on a confidence and supply agreement with the nationalist Sweden Democrats, the second-largest force in parliament. In the Netherlands, the anti-Islamic firebrand Geert Wilders is on the verge of power, having sealed a historic deal to form the most right-wing government in recent Dutch history.

Meanwhile, hard-right parties are dominating the polls across much of Europe. In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is cruising at over 30 percent, far ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. Across the Rhine, Alternative for Germany, a party under police surveillance for its extremist views, is polling second, head-to-head with the Social Democrats.

As we approach next month’s European Parliament election, these parties may use their momentum to form a powerful political bloc — if they can maintain their unity.

A hard-right party is defined for the purposes of this article as a member of the two pan-European umbrella parties on the furthest right of the political spectrum, or the European Parliament groups with the same name.

These include the nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists party, dominated by the Brothers of Italy party and Poland’s Law and Justice party, and the far-right Identity and Democracy party, whose members include France’s National Rally (and contained Alternative for Germany before it was expelled on Thursday following a series of scandals). Hungary’s Fidesz party, which quit the center-right European People’s Party in 2021 amid concerns over democratic backsliding, is also included.

May 24, 2024 4:01 am CET
By Giovanna Coi

Why is the far right thriving in Thuringia?

 

  

In September, the east German state became the first to vote for anti-immigrant party the AfD. For the thousands of Muslim asylum seekers living there, safety is an ever-growing concern. 

Early one morning in February, Mohammed was woken by a neighbour banging loudly on his door. A bin outside the old farm building where he and two other refugee families live in small apartments had been set on fire. The flames had already spread to a nearby tree and were encroaching on his building’s timber roof. 

As he stood in the cold, dark country lane in Thuringia, eastern Germany, with his three children waiting for the emergency services to arrive, the 43-year-old single father watched the flames threatening his home in disbelief, wondering if they had been started by the same group of young men he’d seen throwing rocks and bottles at his home a few weeks earlier. “I couldn’t accept that people could do this to us,” he said. “We always kept our heads down, we never started trouble with anyone.”

Mohammed — whose surname and exact location we’ve withheld for his security — arrived in Germany from Syria three years ago, fleeing the war there. Germany’s central asylum system distributes new arrivals equally across the country. Mohammed’s family were sent to dormitory accommodation in Thuringia and told they would be housed in the state until the courts had processed their asylum claim. They had been excited to move to their own apartment after two years sharing accommodation with hundreds of others, until the attacks began six months later. 

It started with the stones and bottles, then their bikes and mail were stolen and a firework was put through the letterbox. Mohammed’s teenage children were anxious and sleeping badly. ​“They were begging me to move somewhere else, but I couldn’t do anything,” he said. “All we could do was wait.” Nine months later, the family is still waiting — along with 67,820 other registered asylum seekers in Thuringia — in an increasingly hostile limbo.

Thuringia has provided the far right with its biggest election success anywhere in Germany since the second world war. On 1 September, the anti-immigration party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) came top in state elections with 32% of the vote — its biggest ever vote share. Under Germany’s federal system, state governments have significant lawmaking powers in education, culture and social welfare. The Thuringian branch of the AfD is considered one of the most extreme in Germany. Its spokesperson Björn Höcke has been fined twice for using Nazi slogans in speeches. 

In 2023, 8,821 asylum claims were lodged in Thuringia — an increase of 5,837 from 2022 but still well below the peak of 16,044 in 2016. Most asylum seekers there live in secluded camps or shared accommodation in small villages and towns. Mohammed has been housed on a leafy road that until recently had no streetlights, on the outskirts of a small town. These remote spots can feel vulnerable, and often are. Ezra, an organisation that offers counselling for victims of far-right violence, documented violent racism in Thuringia. A spike in attacks began in 2015 with the arrival of the first refugees, reaching 186 in 2023. Last year, the number of recorded incidents dropped to 147, still higher than the annual average of 117, but with a particular increase in attacks on shared refugee accommodation. 

Adam Alazawe, who arrived in Germany from Syria in 2016 and now works with asylum organisations including the Thuringia Refugee Council, believes the state has particular challenges when it comes to safeguarding asylum seekers. A rural region of forests and remote villages, Thuringia is one of the poorest areas of Germany. Its population has plummeted in recent decades as people left to find work. 

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More immigrantes, more crime in Lower Saxony

 

 

A new study suggested a link between an increase in reported violent crimes in Lower Saxony and a significant increase in migrant arrivals in the state.

According to the study, which was conducted by the Zurich University of Applied Sciences and paid for by Germany's Ministry of Family Affairs, police witnessed an increase of 10.4 percent in reported violent crimes in 2015 and 2016. More than 90 percent of the increase (not of total violent crimes) was said to be attributable to migrants. 

The study's authors claimed that part of the increase was due to the fact that violent crimes committed by migrants were twice as likely to be reported compared to those committed by German nationals.

 

Migrants behind gang rapes and knife crime, says German opposition leader

 

Friedrich Merz, rising star of the German centre-Right, has demanded the country stop taking in migrants from Syria and Afghanista. 

Migrants are to blame for the “nightmare” of gang rapes, Germany’s opposition leader has said.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-Right Christian Democrats (CDU), also claimed new arrivals to the country were largely responsible for almost daily cases of knife crime and sexual assault.

Ahead of a key election in eastern Germany, he said: “On average there are two gang rapes per day, far more than half of which are carried out by migrants.”

Speaking on the campaign trail in Brandenburg, Mr Merz, 68, accused young migrant men of a “complete lack of respect for women”.

“This country needs to be able to live in freedom and security once again,” he said, adding that “we will find a majority to ensure that this nightmare is ended”.

The CDU leader appeared to be referring to statistics published in July that showed that 761 cases of gang rape were reported to police last year.

A little under half of the suspects did not have German citizenship.

Knife crime also rising

With knife crime also on the rise, the German interior ministry last month announced plans to ban knives in criminal hotspots and to reduce the length of a legal blade.

Mr Merz, who is widely expected to run against Olaf Scholz, the German leader, in next year’s federal election, has sharpened his broadsides against migrants since a terror attack in Solingen a fortnight ago.

In an attack claimed by Islamic State, a young Syrian man who arrived in Germany in 2022 murdered three people and injured eight more at a diversity festival.

Mr Merz called on the chancellor to stop taking in any more arrivals from Syria and Afghanistan, where most migrants to Germany originate.

This week, he gave Mr Scholz a deadline of next Tuesday to agree to his demands, saying he would otherwise walk away from cross-party talks on the issue.

Far-Right poses election threat

Mr Merz’s comments come in the middle of a series of key elections in the east of the country where the AfD – the anti-immigrant, far-Right political party – recently scored landmark successes.

In voting in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday, the AfD won over 30 per cent of the vote after promising mass deportations of migrants.

Brandenburg, the rural state that surrounds Berlin, is going to the polls on Sept 22.

The AfD lead the polls on 27 per cent. Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats, who run the state government, are second on 23 per cent. The CDU are polling third on 18 per cent.

Mr Merz sought to distinguish his hawkish stance from that of the AfD by emphasising that “the vast majority” of migrants are “fantastic people” whom the country “couldn’t do without”.

Large-scale migration under Merkel

With former German leader Angela Merkel in charge, the CDU opened Germany’s borders to refugees. Large-scale migration started during the autumn of 2015, when up to 10,000 people arrived every day.

But, faced with stiff electoral competition from the AfD, Merz has sought to distance himself from Ms Merkel’s legacy, saying that it would be “unforgivable to make the same mistake twice” on migration.

Mr Scholz has also gone on a migration offensive in recent months.

Last month, he broke the taboo of dealing with the Taliban by sending a plane carrying 28 convicted criminals to Kabul.

His government has also suggested that deportations to Syria will start “very soon”.

Ten men convicted over gang rape in Germany

 

Ten men, mostly Syrian refugees, have been found guilty over the gang rape of a woman outside a German nightclub. The 2018 attack in the city of Freiburg fuelled anti-foreigner sentiment, with protests by the far right. The lead defendant was sentenced to five and a half years for the attack - which lasted for more than two hours - while seven others received sentences of up to four years.

Two men received suspended sentences for failing to provide assistance. One man was acquitted. The victim, who was 18 at the time, had her drink spiked before being attacked in bushes outside the venue. Eight of the men on trial were refugees from Syria, while the other three came from Iraq, Afghanistan and Germany.

After the attack - which came following other high-profile attacks committed by immigrants - the anti-Islam Alternative for Germany took to the streets to protest against Chancellor Angela Merkel's liberal policy towards migrants. Ms Merkel received both widespread praise and criticism for her "open door" policy. She has since admitted that Germany was ill-prepared for the influx.

Assassino de crianças em perigo de vida na cadeia - reclusos ameaçam com "prison napalm"

 "Prison napalm" is a term used to describe a dangerous homemade weapon improvised by inmates in some British (and other) jails. It typically consists of a mixture of boiling water and sugar. The sugar increases the boiling water’s stickiness, causing severe burns and making it difficult to remove from the skin. This makes it an effective but brutal weapon when thrown at someone.

Axel Rudakubana assassinou, à facada, três crianças (uma delas portuguesa) na escola que frequentavam, em Londres. Rudakubana nasceu em Inglaterra, filho de pais imigrantes do Rwanda.

Os reclusos da prisão onde ele será colocado já avisaram os guardas que ele irá submetido a um "prison napalm", uma das mais terríveis armas usadas no submundo das prisões.

Trata-se de uma grande concentração de açúcar fervido com água, até formar uma mistura pastosa e a ferver. Essa mistura é, então, atirada para a cara do recluso assinalado para o castigo. Para além de marcas para a toda a vida, já ouve casos de cegueira e até morte, com a utilização desta "arma".

A free California? Trump visits as initiative to leave U.S. cleared to gather signatures

 

LOS ANGELES – President Donald Trump, long a vocal detractor of California, touched down in Los Angeles on Friday to tour fire ravaged areas, pledging federal support after days of criticizing Democrats over the fires. 

The visit came the day after a new ballot initiative asking voters whether the state should become an independent country was cleared by the California Secretary of State's office to begin gathering signatures.

Could the Golden State just fly the coop, become its own nation and walk away from 175 years of union with the United States?

After all, the idea of California becoming its own country has been around for decades. The state flag still commemorates the 25 days it was once its own republic. Even Gov. Gavin Newsom has slipped and called it a "nation state" more than a few times.

The fires have brought Californians together, said Michael Bryant, 56, whose girlfriend's Malibu home burned down. But recent events haven't brought them closer to the rest of the country.

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