Whites-only community plotting expansion to another state as its efforts to build a ‘white nation’

 

A far-right ethnonationalist group that has set up a “whites-only” community in a remote part of the Ozarks in northeastern Arkansas is reportedly exploring the possibility of expanding north into Missouri.

Return to the Land (RTTL), which describes itself as a private membership association (PMA) for individuals with “traditional views and European ancestry,” opened its first community in Arkansas in October 2023 and is now considering entering a second state, likely near Springfield, according to NBC’s regional affiliate KSNT.

The group is opposed to mass immigration, multiculturalism and “forced integration” and reportedly does not welcome non-white, non-Christian or LGBT+ people, explaining that its members are seeking to “separate ourselves from a failing modern society” and return to pastoral living.

“You want a white nation? Build a white town?” RTTL’s co-founder Eric Orwoll asks in an X video promoting the initiative. “It can be done. We’re doing it.”

RTTL’s flagship community spans approximately 150 acres of land, is home to 40 inhabitants, and features its own cabins, roads, wells, a community center, and a schoolhouse. 

It was followed by a second site nearby that opened in January this year, with the group listing a further Ozarks site as upcoming and aspirations to move into the Appalachian mountains on its website.

Speaking to Sky News journalist Tom Cheshire – who visited RTTL’s first “fortress for the white race” and found a world of fresh goat’s milk, flute recitals, family kickball games and creek swimming – Orwoll expressed a nostalgia for the America of the 17th century encountered by the Virginia settlers.

“I would probably feel more comfortable there because I’m white and that’s the way this country was when my ancestors came there,” he said, overlooking the Native Americans soon to be displaced by the colonists.

(Continue) 

 

Four in 10 feel Muslim immigrants have negative impact on UK

 

The Independent - Aine Fox

Friday 25 July 2025 

Four in 10 Britons feel Muslim immigrants have a negative impact on the UK – and more than half think Islam is not compatible with British values, according to a survey.

The findings have been described by an imam as “deeply worrying”, and showing “high levels of anti-Muslim sentiment” in Britain.

The polling was commissioned by the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community ahead of a gathering for what it described as the UK’s biggest Muslim convention – the Jalsa Salana – this weekend in Hampshire, expected to be attended by 40,000 followers of the faith.

This year’s convention is “opening its doors to sceptics of Islam and those with any questions about the faith”, organisers said – noting that two Reform UK voters are due to attend to hear about the religion.

The YouGov survey of 2,130 adults in Great Britain in mid-July asked people if they felt different groups of immigrants by religion generally have a positive or negative impact on the UK.

While 41% said Muslim immigrants have a negative impact, the proportions feeling this way were much lower for other groups.

Around 15% felt this way about Hindu immigrants, 14% about Sikh immigrants, 13% about Jewish immigrants and 7% about Christian immigrants.

Just under a quarter (24%) of respondents felt Muslim immigrants had a positive impact on the UK, lower than for any of the other religions stated.

Earlier this week, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner urged Labour colleagues to acknowledge people’s “real concerns”, pointing out that immigration was one of a number of factors having a “profound impact on society”, as she updated Cabinet on her work on social cohesion.

Some 53% of those polled said they believed Islam is not compatible with British values, while 25% said it is and 22% said they did not know.

Sabah Ahmedi, aged 30  and known as “the young imam” online – where he has a large following, said he believes fear among people “stems from a lack of understanding of Islam”.

He said: “These findings are deeply worrying, revealing high levels of anti-Muslim sentiment in this country.

“As a British Muslim, it is tragic to think that we are disliked or hated because of our religious beliefs. It is unfair and unjust considering that the vast majority of Muslim immigrants to the UK are contributing positively.”

He encouraged people to “meet Muslims to see we are not a threat” and urged the media to “play a role as well”.

He added: “Instead of focusing on the tiny minority of Muslim immigrants who cause harm, focus on the majority who are on the frontlines serving the NHS, our armed forces, the police, educational institutes and the like.

“We love this country and cherish its values of freedom and tolerance.”

The Union flag will be raised at this weekend’s gathering “alongside the Islamic flag of our community, to symbolise that love of our faith and country go hand in hand”, he said.

The survey findings also indicated younger people were less likely to feel Muslim immigrants have a negative impact and that Islam is incompatible with British values.

Mr Ahmedi said he was “encouraged by these findings that seem to show that the younger generation is more open-minded and that I hope it indicates a brighter future where Muslims are not considered a threat but an asset to this society”.

The Ahmadiyya Muslim Community in the UK is mostly made up of people and their descendants who generally fled Pakistan in the 1980s in the face of religious persecution.

Members said they now face challenges and discrimination in the UK, from some Muslims who do not agree with their version of the faith and from other people who have subjected them to racist bullying because of their Pakistani ethnicity.

(Continue) 

“A Europa é uma prisão a céu aberto” – entrevista a Mamadou Ba, no jornal online "marca"

 

À conversa com Mamadou Ba, activista do Movimento SOS Racismo, procurámos perceber as lógicas históricas que conduziram à génese e persistência da Europa como Fortaleza. A fronteira, sempre vigiada e tantas vezes intransponível está assente, de acordo com Mamadou, “nos limites da capacidade geo-estratégica da Europa” e, como tal, é isso que “temos que interrogar, que não pode existir!”

R. Alves: Há um genocídio em curso às portas da Europa. Podes dizer-nos como é que tudo isto começou, fazendo uma espécie de arqueologia da Europa Fortaleza?

Mamadou Ba: Eu acho que nós podemos dizer, de uma forma genérica, que as fronteiras da Europa – fictícias, políticas e geográficas – se tornaram cemitérios a partir do momento em que a Europa se instalou numa situação de revanche histórica contra os países periféricos, nomeadamente as suas antigas colónias. Já havia mortes na década de setenta, eram poucas e não eram muito publicitadas, porque eram mais ou menos aventureiros que tentavam chegar à Europa através do Estreito de Gibraltar. 

Na altura, havia uma política de recrutamento de trabalhadores, ou seja, o acerto entre o que deveria haver de relação colonial entre a Europa e o resto do mundo era feito indo buscar trabalhadores em massa para trazer para alguns países da Europa, logo a seguir aos Trinta Gloriosos [período entre 1945 a 1975] e onde houve uma industrialização forte (i.e. França, Itália, Bélgica, Alemanha). A Europa reciclou a sua forma de trabalho escravo indo buscar, através de acordos bilaterais, trabalhadores em massa. Hoje, a ideia que nós temos é essa narrativa de que as pessoas vêm em massa porque decidiram vir em massa. Não! Alguém criou essa ideia de que havia uma possibilidade de as pessoas virem. 

Eu sei que para alguns esta comparação é muito forçada, mas ela tem alguma lógica histórica: o que a Europa fez logo a seguir às independências foi o que o faziam os navios negreiros quando iam buscar escravos. Portanto, a lógica da economia da morte, que resulta dessa massificação da imigração, foi uma coisa planeada e planificada por uma necessidade económica capitalista. Depois, quando a Europa começa a entrar numa fase de algum refluxo económico e, sobretudo, quando começou a perceber que já não havia possibilidade de controlar essas “manadas” – tal como no tempo colonial, ou no tempo da escravatura -, que as pessoas podiam ter alguma mobilidade dentro da prisão que era o seu estatuto e a sua condição de imigrantes, isso começou a criar problemas.

Em finais de setenta, início de oitenta, depois de ter desarticulado também as economias dos países de origem, através das políticas de ajustamento estruturais, decidiu: “Olha, nós vamos também, tal como liberalizamos a economia, vamos liberalizar a mobilidade”, o que implica fazer o quê? Nós criamos mecanismos de filtro, deixamos entrar quando quisermos, como quisermos para fazer duas pressões ao mesmo tempo: pressionar os países de origem – na gestão das saídas e entradas dos seus cidadãos – e pressionar a nossa classe trabalhadora. 

Deixando sempre entreaberta a hipótese de que pode vir uma ameaça de fora e, claro, que a Europa também está instalada na sua genética atitude imperialista. Ela acha que a única forma de poder ter acesso a recursos para alimentar a sua máquina económica é perturbar e destabilizar os países mais periféricos e a partir daí temos a Europa a fazer guerras por procuração no Continente Africano, no Médio Oriente e também no Extremo Oriente, coisa que não se fala muito nas narrativas. Tirando a Inglaterra, não temos nenhuma discussão sobre o que acontece, por exemplo, no Extremo Oriente (Malásia, Singapura). E há ali fluxos danados de imigrantes que resultam da herança da política imperialista britânica, tal como no Corno de África e no Próximo ou no Médio Oriente (Somália, Líbano). 

A própria conivência da Europa com o Estado de apartheid de Israel também cria fluxos migratórios forçados porque cria tensões em que as pessoas se vêem obrigadas a fugir para se salvarem. Depois, por um ajuste histórico de posição, logo a seguir à queda do muro de Berlim assistimos à implosão de parte importante dos países que eram limítrofes da Europa dita Ocidental. Com a guerra dos Balcãs isso foi uma forma que a Europa encontrou de arranjar uma desculpa para dizer: “Nós a partir de agora não podemos receber toda a gente”.

 Depois a Europa, do ponto de vista cultural, massificou uma forma de estar no mundo, ou seja, criou uma certa hegemonia civilizacional e cultural através da massificação da televisão e contou nisso com a conivência dos seus vassalos. Os poderes políticos desses países – que foram instalados, a maior parte das vezes, pela Europa ou por interesses europeus – tudo fizeram para criar uma condição de necessidade permanente das populações para aspirarem a ter uma coisa, um modelo de sociedade que não é o delas. E onde é que podem ir buscá-lo? É na Europa. Tal como a Europa fez quando empreendeu o imperialismo e o colonialismo, criou-se a ideia do El Dourado ao contrário.

(Continua) 

Polygamy: A special investigation into how Muslim men can exploit the benefits system

 

Ghulam is a taxi driver who lives in Blackburn, a once-booming textile town in Lancashire. He has a terrace house near his local mosque (one of 53 in the area), a silver Nissan car and a very complex private life.

For he has so many children that he struggles to remember their names, and five wives from various countries, including Yemen, Egypt, Turkey and his own birthplace, Pakistan.

Ghulam’s latest bride is a shy 20-year-old called Hafeza. He brought her to Britain from Morocco, soon after his 45th birthday earlier this year. They married in an Islamic wedding ceremony called ‘the Nikah’ in her village, with Hafeza’s pleased parents among the guests. 

Thirty miles across the Pennines in Yorkshire, pizza delivery driver Wasim, 27, has an equally complicated domestic life.

He lives in a part of Dewsbury called Savile Town, a network of 11 terrace streets dominated by one of the biggest mosques in Europe, where most residents are Asian with origins in Pakistan or India.

Wasim has three wives, the first of whom lives with him and their three teenage sons. His other two wives have separate houses in Savile Town, one down the road and another round the corner. He visits each two nights a week.

The women have had several of Wasim’s children and he hopes the youngest bride (aged 19) will soon present him with another baby. 

I learned of Ghulam and Wasim this week while investigating a subject that is taboo in politically correct Britain. It is the huge rise of bigamy (having two wives) and polygamy (more than two) in our Muslim communities.

The issue was recently bravely highlighted by Baroness Flather, a crossbench life peer who was herself born in Lahore, now part of Pakistan.

She warned the Lords (and also wrote an article for the Mail on the subject) about how our shambolic benefits system is being exploited by men hailing from Pakistan and other Muslim nations who indulge in multiple marriages — with taxpayers forced to foot the bill.

As Baroness Flather explained: ‘The wives are regarded by the welfare system as single mothers, and are therefore entitled to a full range of lone parent payments."

(Continue) 

 

 

Alunos imigrantes nas escolas portuguesas aumentaram 160% em cinco anos

 

Se em 2019, havia cerca de 53 mil alunos estrangeiros nas escolas portuguesas, que representavam 5,3% do total de matriculados, no ano passado, eram já 140 mil e representavam 13,9% do total de alunos

O número de alunos imigrantes nas escolas portuguesas aumentou 160% nos últimos cinco anos, estando o Ministério da Educação a preparar um conjunto de mecanismos para as escolas conseguirem integrar estas crianças e jovens, anunciou esta terça-feira o ministro.

“Entre 2018/19 e 2023/24 temos um aumento de mais de 160% de imigrantes no ensino básico e secundário”, revelou o ministro da Educação, Ciência e Inovação (MECI), Fernando Alexandre, durante a apresentação do relatório da OCDE “Education at a Glance 2024”, que decorreu esta terça-feira no Teatro Thalia, em Lisboa.

Se em 2019, havia cerca de 53 mil alunos estrangeiros nas escolas portuguesas, que representavam 5,3% do total de matriculados, no ano passado, eram já 140 mil e representavam 13,9% do total de alunos, segundo dados do relatório da OCDE.

“Este é um dos grandes desafios na Educação”, anunciou o ministro, sublinhando que a tendência de diminuição de alunos nas escolas portuguesas foi interrompida com a chegada destas crianças e jovens estrangeiras.

Só nos últimos dois anos inscreveram-se mais de 70 mil novos alunos: 39.500 em 2022/2023 e 33.500 no ano passado.

“São mais de 30 mil alunos estrangeiros por ano a entrar no nosso sistema de ensino e estão no país todo. Isto coloca-nos imensos desafios”, reconheceu o ministro que disse que “muito em breve” serão anunciadas medidas para que as escolas tenham instrumentos para lidar com esta nova realidade.

Atualmente, 14% dos alunos do ensino básico e secundário são estrangeiros e por detrás desta média nacional escondem-se realidades locais, como é o caso de Lisboa ou do Algarve, onde “a media é muito mais elevada”, contou.

Entre os principais desafios para os professores está o facto de cerca de 25 a 30% destes novos alunos não falarem português, reconheceu o ministro, que defendeu que a chegada destes alunos deve ser vista como “um problema bom”.

“Trágico e deprimente seria continuar a fechar salas e escolas”, disse, sublinhando que Portugal não tem futuro sem imigração.

“A integração dos imigrantes é essencial para o funcionamento da nossa economia, mas sobretudo para que a nossa sociedade se mantenha coesa. A integração dessas pessoas passa pela educação e começa nos filhos desses imigrantes. Se falharmos na educação vamos falhar na nossa política de migração”, concluiu o ministro, durante a apresentação do relatório anual da OCDE.

O estudo mostra ainda que também são cada vez mais os estudantes estrangeiros que escolhem instituições de ensino superior portuguesas para estudar.

A proporção de estudantes internacionais ou estrangeiros entre todas as inscrições no ensino superior aumentou em quase todos os países entre 2013 e 2022. “Em Portugal, aumentou de 4% para 12%”, refere o estudo.

Mas o aumento mais substancial registou-se entre os inscritos em programas de mestrado ou equivalentes, que passaram de 10% em 2013 para 15% em 2022, em média, nos países da OCDE. Em Portugal, o aumento foi superior a 10 pontos percentuais: subindo de 5% para 15%.

Europa pode ter 58 milhões de muçulmanos em 2030

 

As projeções sobre o número de muçulmanos na União Europeia indicam um crescimento contínuo nos próximos anos, impulsionado principalmente pela migração e, em menor grau, por taxas de natalidade mais elevadas em comparação com a população não-muçulmana.

As estimativas mais abrangentes vêm do Pew Research Center, que em 2017 publicou um estudo detalhado com projeções até 2050, considerando diferentes cenários de migração. Embora não haja projeções anuais exatas para 5, 7 ou 10 anos específicos, podemos inferir a tendência com base nas estimativas para 2030 e 2050.

Projeções do Pew Research Center

Em 2016, a população muçulmana na Europa (incluindo os 28 países da UE na época, além da Noruega e Suíça) era de 25,8 milhões de pessoas, ou 4,9% da população total. O Pew Research Center analisou três cenários:

    Cenário de "Zero Migração": Mesmo que toda a migração para a Europa cessasse imediatamente, a população muçulmana ainda cresceria devido à sua taxa de natalidade mais alta e população mais jovem. Neste cenário, a projeção era de que a população muçulmana atingiria 35,8 milhões até 2050, representando 7,4% da população europeia.

    Cenário de "Migração Média": Considerado o mais provável, este cenário prevê que o fluxo de refugiados diminua, mas a migração regular (por trabalho, estudos, etc.) continue nos níveis atuais. Neste caso, a população muçulmana poderia dobrar de 25,8 milhões em 2016 para cerca de 58 milhões até 2050, representando 11,2% da população total.

    Cenário de "Alta Migração": Se o fluxo de refugiados dos anos recentes (2014-2016) continuasse, a população muçulmana poderia chegar a mais de 75 milhões até 2050, cerca de 14% da população europeia.

Estimativas para os Próximos 5, 7 e 10 Anos (até 2030/2032)

Considerando o cenário de "Migração Média" como o mais provável, podemos estimar a evolução:

    Até 2030 (dentro dos próximos 5 anos): O Pew Research Center, em uma projeção anterior de 2011, já apontava que a população muçulmana na Europa (um pouco mais ampla que a UE27) excederia 58 milhões até 2030. Isso representaria cerca de 8% da população europeia. Tendo como base a população de 25,8 milhões em 2016 e as projeções para 2050, o crescimento é constante. Assim, espera-se um aumento significativo, mas ainda não se aproximando das percentagens de 2050.

    Nos próximos 7 e 10 anos (além de 2030): O crescimento continuaria de forma linear ou ligeiramente acelerada, dependendo dos padrões migratórios e das taxas de natalidade. Atingir 11,2% (cenário médio) ou 14% (cenário alto) da população europeia em 2050 significa que a proporção continuará a subir gradualmente.

É importante ressaltar que estas são projeções e dependem de diversos fatores, como políticas migratórias, eventos geopolíticos e tendências demográficas. No entanto, a tendência geral é de um aumento claro e contínuo do número e da percentagem de muçulmanos na União Europeia. 

"Gemini" 

Final do livro "The Camp of the Saints"

 

"No final, a maré humana irrompeu, imparável e esmagadora. Não houve batalha campal, nem heroicos últimos suspiros de uma civilização a ruir. A Europa, outrora baluarte de uma cultura milenar, cedeu não a uma invasão militar, mas a uma submersão silenciosa." 

"Os poucos que ainda se apegavam às suas raízes, à sua história, foram varridos pela indiferença, pela culpa auto-imposta e pela vasta, inabalável massa de recém-chegados. As fronteiras caíram não por força das armas, mas por uma resignação coletiva, um cansaço existencial que precedeu a chegada." 

"As velhas catedrais, outrora monumentos de fé e arte, tornaram-se eco de um passado esquecido, os seus sinos mudos diante do novo coro de vozes. O Ocidente, em sua riqueza e sua culpa, abriu os braços para o seu próprio desaparecimento, não com um grito de guerra, mas com um suspiro exausto, aceitando o seu destino com uma estranha e melancólica complacência. A antiga ordem desfez-se, não em chamas, mas em areia, escoando pelos dedos de uma geração que já não sabia o que defender." 

Muslims in Portugal will surpass 500,000 in the very near future (likely within the next 5-10 years)

 

The official figures indicating 1.5 million immigrants in the last 5 years, with a significant portion from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, dramatically changes the context for projecting the Muslim population.

Let's re-evaluate the progression of the Muslim population in Portugal for the next 50 years, considering these new figures and the factors of immigration, family reunion, and demography.

Revisiting the Baseline:

    Current Muslim Population (2021 Census): The 2021 census states approximately 65,000 Muslims, representing 0.4% of the population. However, previous research indicated that official census figures often underestimate the true number due to factors like religious affiliation not always being recorded and naturalizations.

    The Impact of Recent Immigration: If 1.5 million immigrants arrived in the last 5 years, and a significant portion are from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, this will have substantially increased the Muslim population beyond the 2021 census figure. These countries have large Muslim populations, and it's reasonable to assume a notable percentage of these new arrivals are Muslim.

Revised Projection Factors:

    Immigration (The Dominant Factor):

        Scale: 1.5 million immigrants in 5 years is a massive influx for a country of Portugal's size (around 10.5 million). This rate of immigration is exceptionally high and, if sustained, will profoundly reshape Portugal's demographics.

        Source Countries: The strong presence of immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India is crucial. These are predominantly Muslim-majority (Pakistan, Bangladesh) or have significant Muslim minorities (India). This directly contributes to the growth of the Muslim population in Portugal.

        Economic Drivers: Portugal's need for labor to offset its aging population and negative natural balance (more deaths than births) is a key driver for this immigration. Immigrants are vital for sectors like agriculture, tourism, and construction.

    Legalization and Pathways: Portugal's policies, including relatively accessible pathways for legal status and family reunification, attract immigrants.

Family Reunion:

    Significant Multiplier: As noted in previous research, family reunification is a major driver of Muslim population growth, particularly for communities like Bangladeshis and Pakistanis. Initial male migrants often bring over their families once established. This process means that the 1.5 million arrivals will have a compounding effect as family members continue to join them.

    Demographic Shift: Family reunification leads to a more balanced age and gender structure within immigrant communities, further supporting natural population growth.

Demography (Birth Rates and Age Structure):

    Higher Fertility: Immigrant communities, particularly those from South Asia and some African countries, generally have higher birth rates than the native Portuguese population. The share of children born to foreign-born mothers is already significant and increasing (21.9% in 2023). This contributes to a "natural increase" of the Muslim population, meaning more births than deaths within the community itself.

        Younger Age Profile: Immigrants typically arrive at younger, reproductive ages, further amplifying the birth rate impact.

Qualitative Progression for the Next 50 Years (Re-evaluated):

Given the scale of recent immigration and its specific origins:

    Substantial and Rapid Growth: The Muslim population in Portugal will experience very substantial and rapid growth over the next 50 years. The 1.5 million immigrants in the last 5 years, with a significant Muslim component, implies that the current Muslim population is already far beyond the 65,000 figure from 2021.

    Likely Exceeding 500,000 and Potentially Much More:

        If a significant percentage (e.g., 20-30% or more) of the 1.5 million recent immigrants are Muslim, the current Muslim population could already be well into the hundreds of thousands (e.g., 300,000-450,000, depending on the exact composition and previous naturalizations).

        When you factor in ongoing immigration (which Portugal relies on to maintain its population), family reunification for these new arrivals, and the higher birth rates within these younger communities, the Muslim population will very likely surpass 500,000 within a much shorter timeframe than 50 years, possibly even within the next decade or two.

        Over a 50-year horizon, if current trends persist, it is entirely plausible that the The official figures indicating 1.5 million immigrants in the last 5 years, with a significant portion from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, dramatically changes the context for projecting the Muslim population.

Let's re-evaluate the progression of the Muslim population in Portugal for the next 50 years, considering these new figures and the factors of immigration, family reunion, and demography.

Revisiting the Baseline:

    Current Muslim Population (2021 Census): The 2021 census states approximately 65,000 Muslims, representing 0.4% of the population. However, previous research indicated that official census figures often underestimate the true number due to factors like religious affiliation not always being recorded and naturalizations.

    The Impact of Recent Immigration: If 1.5 million immigrants arrived in the last 5 years, and a significant portion are from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, this will have substantially increased the Muslim population beyond the 2021 census figure. These countries have large Muslim populations, and it's reasonable to assume a notable percentage of these new arrivals are Muslim.

Revised Projection Factors:

    Immigration (The Dominant Factor):

        Scale: 1.5 million immigrants in 5 years is a massive influx for a country of Portugal's size (around 10.5 million). This rate of immigration is exceptionally high and, if sustained, will profoundly reshape Portugal's demographics.

        Source Countries: The strong presence of immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India is crucial. These are predominantly Muslim-majority (Pakistan, Bangladesh) or have significant Muslim minorities (India). This directly contributes to the growth of the Muslim population in Portugal.

        Economic Drivers: Portugal's need for labor to offset its aging population and negative natural balance (more deaths than births) is a key driver for this immigration. Immigrants are vital for sectors like agriculture, tourism, and construction.

    Legalization and Pathways: Portugal's policies, including relatively accessible pathways for legal status and family reunification, attract immigrants.

Family Reunion:

    Significant Multiplier: As noted in previous research, family reunification is a major driver of Muslim population growth, particularly for communities like Bangladeshis and Pakistanis. Initial male migrants often bring over their families once established. This process means that the 1.5 million arrivals will have a compounding effect as family members continue to join them.

    Demographic Shift: Family reunification leads to a more balanced age and gender structure within immigrant communities, further supporting natural population growth.

Demography (Birth Rates and Age Structure):

    Higher Fertility: Immigrant communities, particularly those from South Asia and some African countries, generally have higher birth rates than the native Portuguese population. The share of children born to foreign-born mothers is already significant and increasing (21.9% in 2023). This contributes to a "natural increase" of the Muslim population, meaning more births than deaths within the community itself.

        Younger Age Profile: Immigrants typically arrive at younger, reproductive ages, further amplifying the birth rate impact.

Qualitative Progression for the Next 50 Years (Re-evaluated):

Given the scale of recent immigration and its specific origins:

    Substantial and Rapid Growth: The Muslim population in Portugal will experience very substantial and rapid growth over the next 50 years. The 1.5 million immigrants in the last 5 years, with a significant Muslim component, implies that the current Muslim population is already far beyond the 65,000 figure from 2021.

    Likely Exceeding 500,000 and Potentially Much More:

        If a significant percentage (e.g., 20-30% or more) of the 1.5 million recent immigrants are Muslim, the current Muslim population could already be well into the hundreds of thousands (e.g., 300,000-450,000, depending on the exact composition and previous naturalizations).

        When you factor in ongoing immigration (which Portugal relies on to maintain its population), family reunification for these new arrivals, and the higher birth rates within these younger communities, the Muslim population will very likely surpass 500,000 within a much shorter timeframe than 50 years, possibly even within the next decade or two.

        Over a 50-year horizon, if current trends persist, it is entirely plausible that the Muslim population could reach well over 1 million, becoming a significantly larger and more visible minority.

    Increased Diversity and Geographic Concentration: The Muslim community will continue to diversify, reflecting the varied origins of immigrants. Concentration in major urban areas (Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Algarve) will likely intensify due to economic opportunities.

    Social and Cultural Impact: A rapid increase in any population group, particularly one with distinct cultural and religious practices, will inevitably lead to greater social and cultural integration efforts, and potentially new challenges related to housing, infrastructure, and social cohesion.

Refined Estimation (Illustrative, Not Definitive):

Let's consider a simplified, illustrative scenario to grasp the magnitude:

    Baseline: Assume the 2021 census figure of 65,000 was accurate at the time.

    Recent Immigration: If, conservatively, 25% of the 1.5 million immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India are Muslim, that's an additional 375,000 Muslims added in the last 5 years. This would bring the current estimated Muslim population to around 440,000 (65,000 + 375,000), making your initial 500,000 figure much more plausible as a near-future reality, rather than a present one or a long-term projection.

    Natural Growth: If Muslim communities have a birth rate higher than the national average (which is very low), even a modest difference will lead to significant natural growth over 50 years. For example, if they average 2.5 children per woman while the general population is at 1.44, their natural growth will be substantial.

    Ongoing Immigration & Family Reunion: If Portugal continues to take in hundreds of thousands of immigrants annually, and a notable portion are from Muslim-majority countries, the numbers will continue to climb rapidly. Family reunification ensures that even if direct immigration from these countries slows, the existing population will grow internally.

Conclusion:

The official figures of 1.5 million immigrants in the last 5 years, with a strong contingent from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, fundamentally alters the projection. The Muslim population in Portugal is no longer a small, slowly growing minority. It is experiencing very significant and rapid growth.

Based on these updated facts, the number of immigrant Muslims in Portugal will undoubtedly surpass 500,000 in the very near future (likely within the next 5-10 years) and could realistically reach well over 1 million within the next 50 years, becoming a much more substantial and visible part of Portuguese society. The actual progression will depend on the sustained nature of these immigration flows, the exact demographic profiles of the incoming populations, and Portugal's evolving integration policies., becoming a significantly larger and more visible minority.

    Increased Diversity and Geographic Concentration: The Muslim community will continue to diversify, reflecting the varied origins of immigrants. Concentration in major urban areas (Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Algarve) will likely intensify due to economic opportunities.

    Social and Cultural Impact: A rapid increase in any population group, particularly one with distinct cultural and religious practices, will inevitably lead to greater social and cultural integration efforts, and potentially new challenges related to housing, infrastructure, and social cohesion.

Refined Estimation (Illustrative, Not Definitive):

Let's consider a simplified, illustrative scenario to grasp the magnitude:

    Baseline: Assume the 2021 census figure of 65,000 was accurate at the time.

    Recent Immigration: If, conservatively, 25% of the 1.5 million immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India are Muslim, that's an additional 375,000 Muslims added in the last 5 years. This would bring the current estimated Muslim population to around 440,000 (65,000 + 375,000), making your initial 500,000 figure much more plausible as a near-future reality, rather than a present one or a long-term projection.

    Natural Growth: If Muslim communities have a birth rate higher than the national average (which is very low), even a modest difference will lead to significant natural growth over 50 years. For example, if they average 2.5 children per woman while the general population is at 1.44, their natural growth will be substantial.

    Ongoing Immigration & Family Reunion: If Portugal continues to take in hundreds of thousands of immigrants annually, and a notable portion are from Muslim-majority countries, the numbers will continue to climb rapidly. Family reunification ensures that even if direct immigration from these countries slows, the existing population will grow internally.

Conclusion:

The official figures of 1.5 million immigrants in the last 5 years, with a strong contingent from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, fundamentally alters the projection. The Muslim population in Portugal is no longer a small, slowly growing minority. It is experiencing very significant and rapid growth.

Based on these updated facts, the number of immigrant Muslims in Portugal will undoubtedly surpass 500,000 in the very near future (likely within the next 5-10 years) and could realistically reach well over 1 million within the next 50 years, becoming a much more substantial and visible part of Portuguese society. The actual progression will depend on the sustained nature of these immigration flows, the exact demographic profiles of the incoming populations, and Portugal's evolving integration policies.

 "Gemini"