The effects of exposure to refugees on crime: Evidence from the Greek islands

 

 

Recent political instability in the Middle East has triggered one of the largest influxes of refugees into Europe. The different departure points along the Turkish coast generate exogenous variation in refugee arrivals across Greek islands. We construct a new dataset on the number and nature of crime incidents and arrested offenders at island level using official police records and newspaper reports. Instrumental variables and difference-in-differences are employed to study the causal relationship between immigration and crime. 

We find that a 1-percentage-point increase in the share of refugees on destination islands increases crime incidents by 1.7–2.5 percentage points compared with neighboring unexposed islands. This is driven by crime incidents committed by refugees; there is no change in crimes committed by natives on those islands. We find a significant rise in property crime, knife attacks, and rape, but no increase in drug crimes. Results based on reported crimes exhibit a similar pattern. Our findings highlight the need for government provision in terms of infrastructure, social benefits, quicker evaluation for asylum, and social security.

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New movie, "Home Alone 2", "Lost in London"

 

How much refugees "earn" in UK?

The primary benefit for most working-age refugees is Universal Credit (UC). This benefit is designed to cover living costs, including a housing element.

Here are some of the weekly (or monthly, for UC) rates for 2024/2025 that can give you an idea of potential amounts, but remember these are components that build up a total, subject to individual circumstances and deductions:

Universal Credit (monthly standard allowances, as of 2024/2025):

    Single, under 25: £311.68

    Single, 25 or over: £393.45

    Couple, both under 25: £489.23

    Couple, one or both 25 or over: £617.60

Additional Universal Credit elements (if applicable):

    Child Element: £287.92 per child (for children born on or after April 6, 2017). An older, higher rate might apply for a first child born before this date (£333.33).

    Disabled Child Element: Low £156.11, High £487.58

    Limited Capability for Work (LCW) Element: £198.31 (though new claims for LCW without LCWRA are generally not made since April 2017)

    Carer Element: £201.68 (if caring for a severely disabled person)

    Childcare Element: Up to 85% of eligible childcare costs, up to a maximum of £1014.63 for one child or £1739.37 for two or more.

    Housing Element: This varies significantly based on Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates, which depend on the number of bedrooms needed and the specific area in the UK. For example, a single person in shared accommodation outside London might have an LHA rate of around £126-£136 per week (approx. £550 per month).

Other potential benefits (weekly rates for 2024/2025):

    Child Benefit:

        Eldest or only child: £25.60 per week

        Each additional child: £16.95 per week

    Personal Independence Payment (PIP): For those with long-term health conditions or disabilities (amounts vary widely depending on daily living and mobility needs, from around £28.70 to £108.55 per week).

    Carer's Allowance: £81.90 per week (if caring for someone receiving certain disability benefits for at least 35 hours a week).

Benefit Cap:

There is a Benefit Cap which limits the total amount of certain benefits a household can receive in a year. The cap depends on where you live:

    Outside Greater London:

        Couples and families: £22,020 per year (£423.46 per week)

        Single adult households (without children): £14,753 per year (£283.71 per week)

    Inside Greater London:

        Couples and families: £25,323 per year (£486.98 per week)

        Single adult households (without children): £16,967 per year (£326.29 per week) 

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Ban the burca, just like these european countries did

Several European countries have implemented full or partial bans on face veils, such as the burqa and niqab, in public places. The specifics of these bans (e.g., full ban, partial ban in certain public spaces like schools or public transport) can vary by country.

Here's a list of European countries that have banned the burqa or other full face-coverings:

    France: Was the first European country to implement a nationwide ban on full face veils in public places in 2010 (law came into force in 2011).

Belgium: Followed France in 2011 with a similar nationwide ban.

Bulgaria: Banned face-covering clothing in public in 2016.

Austria: The "anti-face-veiling act" came into force in October 2017, prohibiting full-face veils in public places.

Denmark: Announced a full ban on niqabs and burqas in May 2018, which came into force in August 2018.

Netherlands: Implemented a partial ban in 2019, prohibiting face coverings in specific public places such as government buildings, schools, hospitals, and public transportation.

Switzerland: Approved a nationwide ban on face coverings in public places through a referendum in March 2021, which came into effect on January 1st, 2025.

Germany: While there isn't a full nationwide ban, Germany has partial bans for certain professions (e.g., civil servants, judiciary, military) and in some states (e.g., for teachers in schools).

Luxembourg: Introduced a ban in 2018.

Latvia: A legal ban on face-covering Islamic clothing was reported to be adopted by the parliament in 2016.

Additionally, some localities in countries like Italy (e.g., Lombardy) and Spain (e.g., parts of Catalonia) have implemented their own restrictions, though these might not be national bans.