Imigração: que futuro?

 

1. "1.5 million immigrants" - Definition is Key:

First, let's consider the "1.5 million immigrants." This figure likely refers to the foreign-born population residing in Portugal (which may include naturalized citizens who were born abroad) or a broad estimate of foreign residents (which includes those with temporary or permanent residence permits, and sometimes an estimate of those awaiting regularization).

    According to Trading Economics, Portugal's foreign-born population was 1,703,848 in December 2024. So, 1.5 million is a reasonable estimate for the current (mid-2025) foreign-born or foreign resident population.

2. Family Reunification is Already Authorized and Ongoing:

It's crucial to understand that family reunification is already a fundamental right and a significant ongoing process in Portuguese immigration law. It's not a new policy that "if authorized" will suddenly kick in.

    Portuguese law allows foreign citizens legally residing in Portugal to bring their family members (spouses, minor and dependent adult children, dependent parents, and sometimes minor siblings under guardianship) to live with them.

    Recent changes (July 2025) have made some aspects stricter, for example, requiring foreign nationals to complete two years of legal residence before applying for family reunification (with exceptions for minor children already in the country).

3. Predicting the Increase Due to Family Reunification is Complex:

Given that family reunification is ongoing, the question shifts from "how many if authorized" to "how many more will come through family reunification or as a result of it?" This depends on several unknowable factors:

    Eligibility and Desire: Not all 1.5 million immigrants will have eligible family members abroad, or they may not wish to bring them to Portugal.

    Average Family Size for Reunification: This is highly variable. While statistics for general family size exist (e.g., Lisbon's average household size is around 2.24), this doesn't directly translate to how many dependents each immigrant applying for reunification will bring. Some might bring a spouse and two children, others just a spouse, or dependent parents.

    Administrative Capacity: The speed and efficiency of AIMA (the Portuguese immigration agency) in processing family reunification applications will also influence the rate at which people arrive. Delays have been noted in the past.

    Economic Conditions: The financial capacity of the immigrant in Portugal to support their family members (proving sufficient means of subsistence and accommodation is a requirement) is a major factor.

    Long-Term vs. Immediate Impact:

        Immediate: There will be an influx of family members who join existing immigrants. This adds directly to the immigrant population.

        Long-term (Birth Rate): The "birth rate superior to the Portuguese birth rate" means that over time, the immigrant population, through natural growth (births within immigrant families), will contribute disproportionately to Portugal's overall population, further increasing the number of people of immigrant origin. This is a generational effect, not a direct "number of immigrants" from reunification.

Conclusion: No Exact Number, but the Trend is Clear

It's impossible to give a precise number like "X more immigrants" directly resulting from family reunification on top of the existing 1.5 million. However, we can say with certainty that:

    The total population of foreign residents and people of immigrant descent in Portugal will continue to increase, due to ongoing new immigration, the already existing family reunification processes, and the higher birth rates within immigrant communities.

    Family reunification is a major component of this growth. It is designed to allow families to be together, and many eligible individuals will utilize this right.

If the "authorization" implies an acceleration or loosening of family reunification policies (which, as of July 2025, seems to be the opposite with a new 2-year residence requirement), then the influx could be even more pronounced. But even with current rules, it's a constant factor contributing to Portugal's changing demographics.

Therefore, rather than a single new number, think of it as a continuing and significant demographic shift where the foreign-born and immigrant-descendant population continues to grow, both through direct migration (including family reunification) and natural increase.

With "Gemini"