A 180-page online screed attributed to the white man accused of killing 10 people at a Tops Friendly Market in Buffalo on Saturday has brought a once-fringe white extremist conspiracy theory into the spotlight. But the underpinnings of the "great replacement" conspiracy theory, which has been iterated on over time to appeal to wider audiences, has penetrated a much more mainstream portion of American society. A recent poll, conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that one in three American adults now believes in a version of replacement theory.
The speed with which this false narrative has tipped into American discourse since a French ethnonationalist first coined the term roughly a decade ago has stunned even extremism experts who have tracked the spread of hate-filled ideologies. They cite the failure of major social media platforms to effectively moderate such content, the role of Fox News hosts in amplifying these ideas, and the uptake of the conspiracy's language by some elected Republican officials.
Demographic change
Between 2010 and 2020, the percentage of Americans who identified as "white only" declined by more than 10 percent, from 72 to 62 percent. During that same decade, several Western European countries saw record influxes of migrants from Muslim nations. It is against the backdrop of this demographic change that replacement rhetoric has accelerated in recent years.
"In the U.S., [it's] often called 'white genocide.' In Europe, [it's] called 'Eurabia,' " said Cynthia Miller-Idriss, professor and director of the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab at American University.
The baseless theories claim that these population shifts are orchestrated by elite power holders. In the U.S., Miller-Idriss said white nationalists ascribe the plot to Jews who they believe are bringing in immigrants and promoting interracial marriage to suppress whites. In Europe, the false narrative blames elite politicians for a growing Muslim population. Miller-Idriss said the coining of the term "great replacement" in France marked a key moment in the growth of these beliefs.
"It has unified and really spread [the conspiracies] online in memes and videos and in a lot of propaganda," she said. "It capitalized on a moment when you're not just reading written propaganda or sharing it in a newsletter or in a small group in a backwoods militia. But it's circulating in these dark online spaces where this [alleged] Buffalo shooter writes he was exposed and radicalized."
From there, the conspiracy theories migrated toward progressively less fringe conservative media platforms, said Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO and national director of the Anti-Defamation League.
"We have literally watched as ideas that originate on white supremacist message boards, or like the dark web – the places that are very difficult to get to – move," said Greenblatt. "They literally jump to [internet message boards like] 4chan and 8chan, which are much more accessible, [then] they jump to web sites like The Daily Caller or Breitbart, and then they jump to Tucker Carlson's talking points or Laura Ingraham's talking points, or other AM radio DJs' talking points. And then you have theoretically mainstream Republican politicians repeating some of this stuff."
"Sanitizing" the message
Although the roots of the "great replacement" are firmly planted in the organized white supremacist movement, a version of the baseless conspiracy has spread among a wider swath of Americans with some minor tweaking of language. Matthew Gertz, a senior fellow at Media Matters for America, said that Carlson has framed the issue around voter replacement.
"What he says is that the Democrats are importing immigrants and that they are replacing Americans," said Gertz. "But no one should really be confused by what he is trying to do. The specific cases that he's talking about are Central American immigrants, they are immigrants from Africa, they are immigrants from the Middle East."
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PS: Entre 2000 e 2024, a percentagem da população branca nos EUA (não hispânica) diminuiu de 69% para 58%. É importante notar que os dados demográficos do Censo dos EUA podem distinguir entre a população "branca" (que inclui indivíduos hispânicos que se identificam como brancos) e a população "branca não hispânica". A tabela abaixo refere-se à percentagem da população branca não hispânica, que é o grupo que tem registado um declínio na sua quota populacional.
Percentagem da População Branca Não Hispânica nos EUA
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