quinta-feira, 9 de outubro de 2025

Crime, rape and immigration in Sweden

 


Top Countries of Origin of imigrants (2010–2020 Totals)

The data below shows the total number of individuals who immigrated (moved to) Sweden from these countries between 2010 and 2020. This clearly highlights the impact of the Syrian Civil War.

Rank/Country of Origin        Total Immigrants (2010–2020)
1    Syria                                177,154
2    Afghanistan                        49,523
3    Iraq                                   48,430
4    Poland                               47,940
5    Somalia                            46,044
6    India                                44,031
7    Eritrea                             38,954
8    Iran                                32,559
9    China                              29,411
10  Germany                         26,945


The official crime statistics in Sweden are published by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå). The number of reported rapes and total sexual offenses for the last five full years (2020-2024, with 2024 being preliminary data) are as follows:
Year    Reported Rape Offenses        Reported Total Sexual Offenses
2024    10,167                                      25,879
2023    9,502                                        24,186
2022    9,675                                        24,795
2021    9,130                                       23,733
2020    8,240                                       21,795

Total  46,714                                      120,388

Important Contextual Notes:

    Reporting Methods: Sweden's reporting method for sexual offenses, particularly rape, is known to be very broad compared to many other countries, which contributes to its high numbers in international comparisons. For example, a single criminal event involving repeated abuse can be registered as multiple separate offenses.
New Legislation: A new law was passed in 2018 that criminalizes sex without explicit consent as rape, which has been cited as a factor in the increase in reported cases.

Reported vs. Actual Crime: These numbers reflect reported offenses to the police. The number of actual victimization instances is generally considered to be higher, as many crimes go unreported.
Sexual Offenses: The "Total Sexual Offenses" category is a broad classification that includes rape, sexual molestation, sexual coercion, and other types of sexual crime.

After World War II, Sweden's rapidly expanding economy created a significant need for labor. This led to a policy of actively recruiting labor migrants primarily from:
Other Nordic countries (due to the Common Nordic Labor Market established in 1954).
Southern European countries (e.g., Italy, Greece, Yugoslavia, Turkey).
During this time, the Swedish government operated under the assumption that these workers would stay and integrate, rather than being temporary "guest workers." This era of recruitment effectively ended around 1972-1973 when the economy slowed down and formal recruitment of non-Nordic workers stopped.

The Asylum and Humanitarian Migration Era (Late 1980s Onwards, with a Peak in the 2010s)
Starting in the 1970s and 1980s, the primary type of immigration shifted from labor to refugees and family reunification. This led to a policy framework that was comparatively generous:

1990s: Sweden became a major destination for asylum seekers from conflicts, notably the wars in the Balkans.
2008: A significant reform in labor immigration policy was implemented, making it more open for skilled and low-skilled workers from outside the EU/EEA.
2015: This is often cited as the peak of the "open doors" approach for refugees, as Sweden received an unprecedented number of asylum seekers (over 160,000) during the European migrant crisis. The government subsequently implemented much stricter border and asylum controls toward the end of 2015 and into 2016.

Statistics on the identification of perpetrators of sexual crimes in Sweden, particularly focusing on their background, are collected and analyzed by Swedish authorities and researchers, most notably the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå). Here are key points regarding the identification and background of suspects in sexual crimes in Sweden:

Suspects' Background and Relative Risk

Studies from Brå and academic research have examined the link between a person's native/non-native background and the likelihood of being registered as a crime suspect, including for sexual offenses like rape. 
    Overall Crime Suspects: Generally, people with a non-native background are registered as crime suspects more often than people born in Sweden to two native-born parents. For instance, according to a recent Brå study:
   People born abroad are about 2.5 times as likely to be registered as a crime suspect (for any crime) as people born in Sweden to two native-born parents.
   For those born in Sweden to two non-native parents, the relative risk is about 3.2 times higher compared to the native group.
   Rape Suspects: The relative risk for being suspected of rape is reported to be 3.2 times higher for both people born abroad and those born in Sweden to two non-native parents, compared to those born in Sweden to two native-born parents.
   Adjustment for Socioeconomic Factors: When adjusting for differences in age, gender, income, and other socioeconomic factors, the relative risk for suspects with a non-native background declines but generally remains higher than the native-born comparison group. For rape, after adjustment, the relative risk for those born abroad was found to decline to 2.2.

Conviction Data and Specific Crime Types

Additional studies focusing on convicted offenders have provided further breakdowns:

    Convicted Rapists (2000–2020): A study on individuals convicted of rape found that 36.9% were Swedish-born with two Swedish-born parents, while 50.6% were born outside Sweden. Overall, 59.2% of the offenders in this study had an immigrant background (born outside Sweden or born in Sweden to one or two non-native parents).

    Rape Assault Cases (Victim and Perpetrator not Acquainted): An analysis of district court cases over a five-year period (2013-2018) found that in cases of assault rape (where the victim and perpetrator were not previously acquainted), 75% of the convicted offenders were born outside Europe.

Context and Reporting

It's important to consider the context of sexual crime statistics in Sweden:

    High Reported Rates: Sweden often reports a high number of rape offenses per capita compared to other countries. The main explanation for this is often attributed to Sweden's broad legal definition of rape (including non-consensual acts without threat or violence) and its practice of registering multiple instances of assault within a continuous relationship as separate crimes. This makes direct international comparison difficult.

    Victim-Perpetrator Relationship: A significant portion of sexual offenses, especially against children and those with family acquaintances, are committed by people known to the victim (e.g., partners, relatives, or friends). However, non-acquaintance rapes show a higher proportion of foreign-born offenders in specific analyses.

    Clear-up Rates: Only a minority of reported sexual offenses result in a conviction. In 2024, approximately 28% of investigated offenses were "person-based cleared" (meaning a suspect was identified). The conviction rate for rape is low compared to the number of reported cases.

(with "Gemini") 

 

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