Although for the most part inconclusive, signs of possible Jihadist activity in Portugal suggest certain similarities with the risks present throughout Europe.
There are several reasons that justify Portugal’s lack of attention towards the Jihadist phenomenon. However, this is not to say that possible Jihadist activity is inexistent. In fact, apart from unclear situations that might conceal a Jihadist intent, there are a number of public cases where known Jihadists have arrived and spent time in Portugal. Still, no evidence of terrorist behaviour was ever discovered. Furthermore, it is not clear what the purpose of their permanence in the country was. Still, it is possible to detect in the few cases that occurred in Portugal some similarities with the Jihadist reality found in Europe.
France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and the UK are some of the European countries that are clearly in Jihadism’s sights. In fact, given the efforts made in the EU’s political spheres, Jihadism is addressed as a common strategic threat. However, and in spite of historical affinities, geographic proximity and freedom of circulation within the Schengen area, Portugal seems to have escaped the violence perpetrated in the name of Allah. There is no significant news of Jihadist activities in Portugal, nor does the general public perceive it as a threat. But does perception equal reality?
To answer this question, it is important to start by making a brief comment on the reasons accounting for the marginal threat perception, namely political discourse, the media and the national Muslim community. Secondly, it is also relevant to uncover possible signs that might call for alert –in other words, aspects that though not constituting a real threat might indicate or evolve into one–. Finally, the analysis of known cases should allow us to obtain additional information to grasp this poorly-addressed reality.
A Comment on Threat Perception
A proper analysis of the reasons behind the absence of a threat perception regarding Jihadism in Portugal would certainly require a quantitative and qualitative study. However, there are four reasons that would surely emerge as a result of such an analysis: (1) Portugal’s attitude towards security and defence issues; (2) media coverage; (3) political discourse; and (4) the specific characteristics of the Portuguese Muslim community.
It could be said that contemporary Portugal – as regards both institutions and civil society– has a relatively passive, even negligent, attitude towards security and defence issues. This somewhat culturally-based stance leads to the adoption of only reactive policies –instead of preventive policies based on prospective analysis– and is prevalent in many aspects of daily life, including the media.
Contrary to other European countries, information in open sources related to Islamist terrorism in Portugal is practically nonexistent. There are a considerable number of academic articles devoted to Jihadist movements in general and to the importance of Islam in Portuguese culture, but only a very few regarding Jihadism in Portugal itself. The media hardly ever publish any relevant information. Episodes of possible Jihadist activities have been reported in the media, although usually in a sporadic fashion and without being front-page news. Moreover, such cases have hardly ever brought to light any significant information and have never been followed up in any significant way.
A reason that often emerges in political and academic discourse in Portugal to support the idea that the country is immune to Jihadism is the country’s low international profile. In other words, given Portugal’s lack of leverage in world politics, the impact on the media that every terrorist attack aims for would be smaller than if perpetrated in a leading European country. Although a partly reasonable explanation, there are four considerations that limit its validity:
While this may be true for a well-structured and internationally-connected Jihadist cell, it is a mistake to think that the same logic applies to self-startercells (self-reliant and self-recruited groups that have adopted al-Qaeda’s rhetoric but act of their accord). According to Europol, the number of these autonomous terrorist cells is on the rise and they are therefore an important concern regarding the Jihadist threat in Europe.
The combination of Europe’s freedom of circulation with the efficiency of the counterterrorist policies implemented in countries such as Spain, France and Germany means that terrorist cells can elect to transfer their activities and, in this respect, Portugal could become increasingly attractive as a target. Mounting security pressure in several European member states could drive committed terrorist cells to search for other countries with less experience in dealing with this sort of threat. Given the enormous freedom of circulation that citizens have within the Schengen area, transferring terrorist activities from one European country to another is not a difficult task.
Regardless of whether Portugal is – from the Jihadist’s point of view– a good target, it is a feasible base for logistic operations –just as Spain was during the 1980s and 90s.
It ignores the fact that the European experience regarding the attraction of Jihadism generally relies on offering an identity and a sense of belonging to socially and spiritually alienated individuals. Thus, wherever there are socially disenfranchised fringes there is a potential radicalisation and recruitment ground.
The last of the four reasons explaining the absence of a perception of threat is the origin and structure of the Portuguese Muslim community, which dates from the African decolonisation process of the 1970s. The most significant groups came from Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau, joining a small group of Muslims already in the country since the 1950s, who had come as students. Among Portuguese Muslims there are Sunnis, but also a notable number of Shiite Ismailias who mainly arrived from Mozambique but are – for the most part– originally from the former colonial cities of India (Goa, Damão and Diu), territories lost by Portugal in 1960
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