Replacement Migration: Is it A Solution to Declining and Ageing Population? (Published by United Nations Secretariat)

 

 

 

"Replacement Migration: Is it A Solution to Declining and Ageing
Populations?"

From: 

Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations Secretariat  

For further information, please contact the office of Mr. Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, United Nations, New York 10017, USA.

Some excerts of this study:

"(...) Focusing on these two striking and critical trends, the present study addresses the question of whether replacement migration is a solution to declining and ageing populations. Replacement migration refers to the international migration that would be needed to offset declines in the size of population, the declines in the population of working age, as well as to offset the overall ageing of a population.

Except for the United States, the numbers of migrants needed to maintain the size of the total population (scenario III) are considerably larger than those assumed in the medium variant of the United Nations projections (scenario I). In Italy, for example, the total number of migrants is 12.6 million (or 251 thousand per year) in scenario III versus 0.3 million (or 6 thousand per year) in scenario I. For the European Union, the respective numbers are 47 million versus 13 million (or 949 thousand per year versus 270 thousand per year).

The number of migrants necessary annually to keep the potential support ratio constant at its 1995 level would be 15 times greater than the net migration level in the 1990s. Towards the end of the period, i.e. by 2040-2050, the net annual number of migrants required by the European Union would be equivalent to half the world's annual population growth.

Thus, if replacement migration were to be used as the mechanism for shoring up the potential support ratio in the European Union at its present level, by 2050 the total population of the European Union would have grown to more than three times its present level. In this process, the European Union's share of world population would have more than doubled, from 6.6 per cent in 1995 to 13.8 percent 2050. In addition, three-quarters of the total population in 2050 would consist of post-1995 migrants from outside the present boundaries of the Union and their descendants.

 A number of other studies analyzed the effects of the steady influx of migration on the future age structure of a host population. For instance, Lesthaeghe and others (1988) projected the age structure of the total population of the twelve European countries with and without migration up to the year 2060.

Their calculations show that the overall ageing trend in Europe can be attenuated through immigration,  but it cannot be prevented. Assuming that the total fertility of nationals remains constant at 1.6 and that of non-nationals falls to the replacement level by 2010, the proportion aged 65 years or older among females would rise from 16.3 per cent in 1985 to 25.8 per cent in 2060 in the absence of migration. The proportion was projected to be 21.3 per cent in 2060, if an additional 400,000 female immigrants would arrive every year, other things being equal."(...)